{"schemaVersion":1,"writing":{"title":"Creative Writing","metric":{"name":"Thurstone comparison score","scale":"Relative to the rated pool (centred at 0); higher is better","interval":"95% bootstrap interval, 300 resamples of stories and evaluators","count":"Matched story pairs compared","winChance":"Average fitted probability of beating another model in the pool"},"description":"Writer models answer the same constrained creative briefs. Separate evaluator models read matched stories in both orders and judge which is better; pairwise judgments are fitted with a Thurstone model and a correction for presentation order.","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/lechmazur/writing","readmeUrl":"https://github.com/lechmazur/writing/blob/994504ef5e7ee59713c31a08b761de6ec1bcc188/README.md","dataUrl":"https://github.com/lechmazur/writing/tree/994504ef5e7ee59713c31a08b761de6ec1bcc188/data/writing_mistral_large4_20261007","snapshotDate":"2026-10-07","sourceCommit":"994504ef5e7ee59713c31a08b761de6ec1bcc188","sourceCommitDate":"2026-10-08T13:14:17-04:00","sourceFiles":{"README.md":"d9537bb0ef7ffa75","data/writing_mistral_large4_20261007/ratings.csv":"48d96ed3aa20a5e3","data/writing_mistral_large4_20261007/pair_stats.csv":"9d5c9138c5a1fa42"},"totals":{"models":57,"directPairings":934,"storyPairs":15692,"judgments":105704},"notes":["Only completed stories were compared. 6 models completed fewer stories than planned; their story coverage is listed with their results.","Intervals reflect variation in completed comparisons, not the effect of missing stories or judgments."],"models":[{"id":"claude-opus-5-xhigh","name":"Claude Opus 5 (xhigh)","rank":1,"score":3.777,"low":3.722,"high":3.839,"winChance":0.932,"count":1002,"opponents":56},{"id":"claude-fable-5-1-high","name":"Claude Fable 5.1 (high)","rank":2,"score":3.76,"low":3.675,"high":3.86,"winChance":0.931,"count":437,"opponents":30},{"id":"claude-opus-5-5-high","name":"Claude Opus 5.5 (high)","rank":3,"score":3.718,"low":3.63,"high":3.81,"winChance":0.929,"count":436,"opponents":26},{"id":"gpt-6-astra-high","name":"GPT-6 Astra (high)","rank":4,"score":3.461,"low":3.388,"high":3.535,"winChance":0.911,"count":860,"opponents":56},{"id":"claude-opus-5-high","name":"Claude Opus 5 (high)","rank":5,"score":3.414,"low":3.313,"high":3.531,"winChance":0.908,"count":347,"opponents":26},{"id":"glm-5.3","name":"GLM-5.3 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2.545],[46,30,20,0.05,0.098,-2.615],[24,9,20,0.05,0.098,-2.791],[34,15,50,0.05,0.058,-2.793],[47,21,20,0.05,0.098,-2.939],[47,29,20,0.05,0.098,-3.408],[32,9,20,0.05,0.098,-3.52],[56,49,20,0.05,0.098,-4.202],[55,34,20,0.05,0.098,-4.218],[56,34,20,0.05,0.098,-4.653],[56,50,39,0.026,0.05,-3.083],[24,14,20,0.025,0.049,-2.202],[20,9,20,0.025,0.049,-2.258],[21,7,20,0.025,0.049,-2.346],[25,9,20,0.025,0.049,-2.581],[21,8,20,0.025,0.049,-2.753],[16,0,20,0.025,0.049,-3.252],[32,7,20,0.025,0.049,-3.294],[20,3,30,0.017,0.033,-3.063],[11,3,5,0.0,0.0,-1.56],[47,36,5,0.0,0.0,-1.653],[12,3,5,0.0,0.0,-1.767],[39,28,5,0.0,0.0,-1.992],[51,47,2,0.0,0.0,-2.0],[36,19,5,0.0,0.0,-2.0],[23,11,10,0.0,0.0,-2.072],[38,35,4,0.0,0.0,-2.082],[41,18,20,0.0,0.0,-2.129],[23,12,10,0.0,0.0,-2.19],[38,28,5,0.0,0.0,-2.2],[39,19,5,0.0,0.0,-2.24],[17,7,20,0.0,0.0,-2.281],[46,28,5,0.0,0.0,-2.307],[41,26,5,0.0,0.0,-2.322],[8,3,5,0.0,0.0,-2.35],[46,23,20,0.0,0.0,-2.374],[16,3,5,0.0,0.0,-2.378],[17,3,5,0.0,0.0,-2.507],[47,19,5,0.0,0.0,-2.51],[23,8,10,0.0,0.0,-2.546],[42,26,20,0.0,0.0,-2.588],[32,19,5,0.0,0.0,-2.59],[21,5,50,0.0,0.0,-2.627],[46,18,20,0.0,0.0,-2.648],[46,27,20,0.0,0.0,-2.662],[41,15,5,0.0,0.0,-2.713],[44,15,4,0.0,0.0,-2.788],[49,33,5,0.0,0.0,-2.788],[42,19,20,0.0,0.0,-2.823],[24,7,20,0.0,0.0,-2.845],[44,33,5,0.0,0.0,-2.867],[48,33,5,0.0,0.0,-2.877],[44,21,20,0.0,0.0,-2.889],[50,33,5,0.0,0.0,-2.897],[43,18,20,0.0,0.0,-2.902],[14,3,5,0.0,0.0,-2.91],[53,33,5,0.0,0.0,-2.946],[34,19,5,0.0,0.0,-2.953],[25,5,20,0.0,0.0,-2.956],[40,30,4,0.0,0.0,-2.958],[32,12,20,0.0,0.0,-2.965],[47,27,30,0.0,0.0,-2.973],[21,3,5,0.0,0.0,-2.987],[44,19,5,0.0,0.0,-3.01],[41,19,5,0.0,0.0,-3.027],[52,34,5,0.0,0.0,-3.056],[32,10,20,0.0,0.0,-3.057],[52,19,5,0.0,0.0,-3.058],[54,37,30,0.0,0.0,-3.077],[13,3,5,0.0,0.0,-3.08],[27,9,20,0.0,0.0,-3.097],[36,9,20,0.0,0.0,-3.112],[32,8,20,0.0,0.0,-3.139],[46,19,5,0.0,0.0,-3.14],[24,8,20,0.0,0.0,-3.142],[46,3,5,0.0,0.0,-3.197],[44,26,5,0.0,0.0,-3.2],[20,5,5,0.0,0.0,-3.202],[20,10,20,0.0,0.0,-3.211],[50,26,50,0.0,0.0,-3.216],[56,43,20,0.0,0.0,-3.22],[47,28,5,0.0,0.0,-3.223],[31,9,20,0.0,0.0,-3.245],[53,22,4,0.0,0.0,-3.263],[51,28,5,0.0,0.0,-3.267],[54,28,5,0.0,0.0,-3.271],[36,7,20,0.0,0.0,-3.277],[54,45,8,0.0,0.0,-3.283],[53,28,5,0.0,0.0,-3.284],[46,10,20,0.0,0.0,-3.332],[54,30,5,0.0,0.0,-3.348],[39,30,4,0.0,0.0,-3.358],[36,5,5,0.0,0.0,-3.36],[41,10,20,0.0,0.0,-3.362],[47,15,3,0.0,0.0,-3.378],[36,10,20,0.0,0.0,-3.378],[44,18,20,0.0,0.0,-3.387],[17,0,30,0.0,0.0,-3.404],[44,28,5,0.0,0.0,-3.41],[52,33,5,0.0,0.0,-3.423],[53,18,20,0.0,0.0,-3.441],[47,30,7,0.0,0.0,-3.455],[36,3,5,0.0,0.0,-3.469],[47,26,5,0.0,0.0,-3.47],[38,19,5,0.0,0.0,-3.49],[44,8,20,0.0,0.0,-3.505],[44,10,20,0.0,0.0,-3.513],[49,26,5,0.0,0.0,-3.525],[52,26,20,0.0,0.0,-3.544],[47,18,20,0.0,0.0,-3.551],[25,3,20,0.0,0.0,-3.558],[38,3,5,0.0,0.0,-3.567],[56,48,20,0.0,0.0,-3.571],[52,15,3,0.0,0.0,-3.639],[52,28,5,0.0,0.0,-3.643],[46,9,20,0.0,0.0,-3.683],[46,12,20,0.0,0.0,-3.696],[47,10,20,0.0,0.0,-3.773],[23,3,5,0.0,0.0,-3.802],[49,18,20,0.0,0.0,-3.81],[24,3,5,0.0,0.0,-3.82],[31,5,20,0.0,0.0,-3.875],[51,19,5,0.0,0.0,-3.903],[47,8,20,0.0,0.0,-3.939],[31,3,20,0.0,0.0,-3.943],[38,5,5,0.0,0.0,-3.946],[40,19,5,0.0,0.0,-3.95],[53,26,5,0.0,0.0,-3.968],[56,45,20,0.0,0.0,-3.974],[46,8,20,0.0,0.0,-3.978],[24,0,20,0.0,0.0,-3.981],[41,5,5,0.0,0.0,-4.058],[41,7,20,0.0,0.0,-4.063],[49,28,5,0.0,0.0,-4.103],[41,8,20,0.0,0.0,-4.116],[46,11,20,0.0,0.0,-4.163],[47,9,15,0.0,0.0,-4.178],[44,7,20,0.0,0.0,-4.216],[56,29,20,0.0,0.0,-4.226],[54,19,5,0.0,0.0,-4.246],[38,8,8,0.0,0.0,-4.261],[47,3,20,0.0,0.0,-4.265],[53,19,5,0.0,0.0,-4.357],[41,9,20,0.0,0.0,-4.376],[44,3,20,0.0,0.0,-4.382],[44,9,20,0.0,0.0,-4.386],[44,5,5,0.0,0.0,-4.417],[46,7,20,0.0,0.0,-4.431],[51,3,5,0.0,0.0,-4.477],[56,37,20,0.0,0.0,-4.477],[47,5,5,0.0,0.0,-4.48],[41,3,20,0.0,0.0,-4.499],[56,28,5,0.0,0.0,-4.507],[51,8,20,0.0,0.0,-4.539],[47,7,20,0.0,0.0,-4.629],[55,27,20,0.0,0.0,-4.658],[55,19,5,0.0,0.0,-4.66],[56,35,20,0.0,0.0,-4.694],[32,3,5,0.0,0.0,-4.817],[55,29,20,0.0,0.0,-4.828],[53,15,3,0.0,0.0,-4.9],[56,27,20,0.0,0.0,-4.977],[53,9,15,0.0,0.0,-5.066],[56,39,20,0.0,0.0,-5.14],[56,30,20,0.0,0.0,-5.529],[56,19,5,0.0,0.0,-5.6],[56,9,15,0.0,0.0,-5.798],[56,18,20,0.0,0.0,-6.06],[52,9,20,0.0,0.0,-6.159]]}},"debate":{"title":"Debate","metric":{"name":"Bradley-Terry rating","scale":"Relative within-pool rating centred near 1500; higher is better","interval":"95% robust (sandwich) confidence interval","count":"Complete side-swapped matchups (two debates, sides reversed)","availability":"Percent of scheduled side-swapped matchups completed"},"description":"Models debate the same motion twice with PRO and CON sides swapped. A three-model judge panel decides each debate's winner and margin; ratings use complete side-swapped matchups.","sourceUrl":"https://github.com/lechmazur/debate","readmeUrl":"https://github.com/lechmazur/debate/blob/72d2063e321c30a34687f6ce325773b60a878546/README.md","dataUrl":"https://github.com/lechmazur/debate/tree/72d2063e321c30a34687f6ce325773b60a878546/judgments","snapshotDate":"2026-09-24","scope":"judge_judge_blend_20260923_finala__debate_all_templates","sourceCommit":"72d2063e321c30a34687f6ce325773b60a878546","sourceCommitDate":"2026-09-25T16:16:20-04:00","sourceFiles":{"README.md":"ab6388ebaca53637","reports/debate_leaderboard__judge_judge_blend_20260923_finala__debate_all_templates.md":"3c2f2d555a34b124","debate_model_ratings__judge_judge_blend_20260923_finala__debate_all_templates.csv":"ee688ba50eedb9f9","debate_pair_stats__judge_judge_blend_20260923_finala__debate_all_templates.csv":"1e70618073ceedbc"},"provenance":{"headline":"Rank, BT, matchups, availability, topics, and opponents are the published values in README.md and reports/debate_leaderboard__judge_judge_blend_20260923_finala__debate_all_templates.md.","intervals":"low/high are bt_ci95_low_norm and bt_ci95_high_norm from debate_model_ratings__judge_judge_blend_20260923_finala__debate_all_templates.csv, the ratings table behind the published chart images/debate_bt_ratings__judge_judge_blend_20260923_finala__debate_all_templates.png.","pairs":"Pair margins (mean_signed_margin_a_norm) and matchup counts (topic_pairs) are from debate_pair_stats__judge_judge_blend_20260923_finala__debate_all_templates.csv, the table behind the published heatmap images/debate_pair_margin_heatmap__judge_judge_blend_20260923_finala__debate_all_templates.png.","verification":"Both tables belong to the exact published scope. The leaderboard report generated with them is byte-identical to the published report; every exported BT, matchup, availability, topic, and opponent value matches it, and pair counts sum to the published 3,672 and 3,424 matchup totals."},"totals":{"ratedModels":59,"publicModels":56,"matchups":3672,"debates":7344,"judgeDecisions":22592,"topics":683,"publicMatchups":3424},"notes":["Intervals and head-to-head margins come from the data behind the published rating chart and heatmap; the provenance notes name the exact tables.","Pairs with only one or two matchups are directional evidence, not stable pairwise estimates."],"models":[{"id":"claude-fable-5-1-high","name":"Claude Fable 5.1 (high)","rank":1,"score":1737.6,"low":1726.4,"high":1748.7,"count":177,"topics":160,"opponents":26,"availability":95.7},{"id":"claude-fable-5-high","name":"Claude Fable 5 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Connections","metric":{"name":"Quadratic-v1 score","scale":"Mean of (exact groups / 4)^2 per puzzle × 100; 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 groups earn 0, 6.25, 25, 56.25, 100","interval":null,"count":"Puzzles attempted"},"description":"940 NYT Connections puzzles with up to four extra trick words added to each, testing verbal associative reasoning under plausible decoys. 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